Composing a Plot

The French historian Fernand Braudel offered a coherent way to understand. First, there were the shifting political alliances which led to an internationally linked economy. What scenario planners call "logics": the plot which ties together the elements of the system. All cycles have a similar plot, a plot of rising and falling fortunes. All evolution works pretty much the same way, also political stumble.

Scenarios explore several of those alternatives, based on the plots (or combination of plots) which are most worth considering. The same set of driving forces might, of course, behave in a variety of different ways, based on the past.

There are three main plots

Winners and Losers

Challenge and Response

Evolution

Winners and Losers

This plot starts with the perception that the world is essentially limited, that resources are scarce, and that if one side gets richer, the other side must get poorer. Economist Lester Throw called this the "zero-sum game." Only one candidate can win the election; therefore, others must lose. Only one country can dominate the economy; therefore, others must be subservient. Only one executive can become CEO; therefore, the rivals must leave the company. Only one corporation can dominate the market; there can be only one IBM in computers.

Challenge and Response

We may see events that bring us to the brink, but the system itself won’t fail. Instead, it will evolve further with each new challenge and response. It comes from script writing as well as from historian Arnold Toynbee, it refers to adventure stories in which an individual faces one unexpected test after another.. Overcoming the test, passing the test, is important—not for its credential, but for its effect on the hero’s character.